A study by the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that a portion of the San Andreas fault near Tejon Pass could be overdue for a major earthquake. At present, the response spectra from a great scenario earthquake from the Alpine fault can only be estimated from groundmotion - prediction equations (GMPEs) based on local and overseas earthquake records. Get all the information you need to get around Dunedin. Here you can find all our publications, plans and reports. New evidence of a 19th century earthquake on New Zealand's Alpine fault suggests that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events. Damage in other parts of Otago will be irregularly distributed depending on the land forms and the built environment. The length of the rupture will be … The 1888 North Canterbury earthquake on the Hope Fault west of Hanmer Springs. The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following it. Damage to hydro electrical generation plants and transmission lines will result in an immediate shutdown of South Island power generation and widespread disruption of reticulation. The lengthy Alpine Fault, which runs along the spine of the Southern Alps, has garnered much attention as it has a clear geographic record of rupturing every 300 years or so. "By comparison, the Kaikōura Earthquake in 2016 ruptured a total fault length of 200km in the space of about two minutes," said Holden. You can pick out the line of the Alpine Fault on this satellite image of the South Island. The average slip rates in the fault's central region are abo… The Wakatipu including Queenstown could become completely isolated if the airport is damaged. GNS scientists have calculated a 30% likelihood of the fault line rupturing in the next 50 years. Civil Defence Emergency Management Groups across the South Island are working together to plan a coordinated response to the next severe Alpine Fault earthquake. 1 December 2020–A rupture along the full length of the fast-slipping Alpine Fault on New Zealand’s South Island poses the largest potential seismic threat to the southern and central parts of the country.But new evidence of a 19 th century earthquake indicates that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events. Large faults within the Earth's crust result from the action of plate tectonic forces, with the largest forming the boundaries between the plates, such as subduction zones or transform faults. Check on the Emergency Management Otago website to see whether the area you live has a community response plan. Develop a plan about for what you need in order to be prepared. Landslide dams with breakout flash flooding are very likely. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island (c. 480 km) and forms the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. It will be centred roughly 60km west of Queenstown, in the South Westland area. All communication systems including land and cell-phones may be down in many parts of West Otago. A study released by NIWA in 2018 found evidence of tsunami up to 5m high caused by landslides into Lake Tekapo, which scientists believe will be similar to other large Otago Lakes: www.niwa.co.nz/news/lake-tekapo-study-raises-awareness-of-tsunamis-in-nz-lakes. Front page photograph: The Alpine Fault at Inchbonnie – Hohonus and Taramakau River looking east [L.Homer, GNS] M Trayes, Natural Hazards Analyst West Coast Regional Council February 20 12 Plan to be self-reliant for at least three days – a week or more is realistic. With an expected magnitude of 8+ this will be considered a "great earthquake" not simply a strong one. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. Email info@otagocdem.govt.nz or phone 0800 474 082, Transitions from 'deemed permit' to RMA consent, Resource consenting practice and guidance notes, Get involved in the development of ORC’s new Regional Policy Statement, Otago Civil Defence and Emergency Management, www.youtube.com/channel/UC3nsXLqxO5OGcYCmEcS56sA, www.niwa.co.nz/news/lake-tekapo-study-raises-awareness-of-tsunamis-in-nz-lakes. The Alpine Fault, which runs for about 600km up the spine of the South Island, is one of the world’s major geological features. The 2010 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake on the Greendale Fault. Many rivers and streams will become impassable. How often does the Alpine Fault rupture? In some places the force will result in a horizontal earth shift of up to 8 metres, and a vertical displacement of 4 metres. The Southern Alps have been uplifted on the fault over the last 12 million years in a series of earthquakes. In areas where the magnitude is plus or minus 9, many tens of millions of cubic metres of rock and scree may collapse from slopes. In geology, a fault is a planar fracture or discontinuity in a volume of rock across which there has been significant displacement as a result of rock-mass movements. We work with the community to ensure the sustainable use of our natural resources. The next Alpine Fault earthquake would likely also be a long-duration event – unzipping the crust for as much as three minutes - because of the sheer length of the fault. The rupture of another faultline nearby may trigger it, but we will only know this afterwards. Water, sewerage, energy, transport, health, and social services are likely to be disrupted for weeks. The length of the rupture will be up to 400 km, eg. Countless landslides can be expected of all sizes. We are a young country and learning to adapt to it is a necessity if you and your community are to get through. Find out more. Image / GNS Science A major problem constraining repair and rebuilding will be the shortage of trades people and materials. However, most of the motion on the fault is strike-slip (side to side), with the Tasman district and West Coast moving North and Canterbury and Otagomoving South. Two very large earthquakes or a series of large earthquakes are also realistic scenarios. Huge sediment and gravel deposits will have downstream effects for years. You are represented by 12 councillors, elected to govern the Council for the people of Otago. Snow on the mountains of the Pacific plate contrasts with the lower land of the Australian plate. Look at your home, property or business and develop scenarios about the risk factors. This includes having stored water, food, medical supplies, alternative means of cooking and heating for your household and your pets. 2. Using techniques like these, scientists such as Mark Yetton of the University of Canterbury have found out that major earthquakes happened on the central Alpine Fault in 1100, 1450, 1620 and 1717. The Alpine Fault runs for about 600km up the spine of the South Island, and is one of the world’s major geological features. They move at a relative rate of about 45mm per year. Aggradation will deposit high sediment volumes in riverbeds lasting for many months. The Resource Management Act sets out how we should manage our environment and forms the foundation for the majority of our work. There is extensive advice on how to be prepared on www.happens.nz and www.otagocdem.govt.nz. The Alpine Fault marks the boundary of the Pacific and Australian Plates. New evidence of a 19th century earthquake on New Zealand's Alpine fault suggests that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events. Provision of emergency medical facilities for many major trauma victims and the rescue of trapped people on roads will be severely disrupted for 3-4 weeks. An earthquake is the result of a sudden release of stored energy in the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves. The Pacific Plate on the easterly area of New Zealand is moving westwards and the Australian Plate, on the western side of New Zealand moves eastwards. Find out more about what rates are used for and how to pay them. At this point the surfaces of the two plates making up the South Islands alpine fault meet. on Haast and spreading north to Ahaura. Agricultural production will be disrupted, and dairy herds may be unable to be milked in some areas due to electricity outage. Geologists working on Project AF8 believe that the next severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault is most likely to be a rupture that begins in South Westland and “unzips” northwards and will probably have a magnitude of 8+ on the Richter Scale. The Alpine Fault is sometimes compared with California’s San Andreas Fault, being another fast-moving strike slip fault near a plate boundary. It’s the "on-land" boundary of the Pacific and Australian Plates. Areas such as Lakes Wakatipu, Wanaka, Hawea, Te Anau, Manapouri, Tekapo, Milford Sound Doubtful Sound are at risk from tsunami induced by massive landslips into the water. Cessation of most commercial activity may occur in many parts of the South Island, however, many local economies will be maintained solely by recovery activities. Our Knowledge of the Alpine Fault . Presentation given in Christchurch in March 2015. Areas such as the Shotover River may be radically transformed. Satellite based telephone systems will initially be the main means of communication. Transalpine routes and roads in mountainous areas will be impassable for weeks, therefore, tourists and other travellers are likely to be stranded. The council's emergency management team has been working with Selwyn communities to get ready. The Clyde Dam has been built to very high specifications and it is unlikely it would suffer catastrophic damage. Alpine Fault movement. View our live rainfall, river flow and ground water data. The largest city within the highest-risk zone is the nation's capital, Wellington, followed by Hastings then Napier. Our scientific understanding concerning the next large earthquake on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand. Ready to apply for a resource consent? 4. This fault has ruptured four times in the past 900 years, each time producing an earthquake of about magnitude 8. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. An Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too. Large sections of SH6 (Haast Highway) may be out for up to a year. The Alpine Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the South Island, scientists say. A new model has simulated the disruption a major Alpine Fault earthquake would have on the South Island's transport network - cutting off the West Coast for at least a week. This earthquake is a normal part of New Zealand's evolution. The map below indicates the range of the earthquake and its shaking intensity (shown in Roman numerals). Alpine has had: (M1.5 or greater) 1 earthquake in the past 24 hours 7 earthquakes in the past 7 days; 29 earthquakes in the past 30 days; 767 earthquakes in the past 365 days The Red Hills, Fiordland This view is looking northward, from Fiordland up along the West Coast of the South Island. Large earthquakes are less common along the central Alpine Fault, where the plates are not subducting and the forces are accommodated in different ways. AF8 [Alpine Fault Magnitude 8] is an award-winning programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to build a collective resilience and preparedness to the next Alpine Fault earthquake event. The historical patterns of earthquakes and current research on the Alpine Fault indicate that it is likely to rupture very soon in geological terms. Those dates were … The alpine fault may rupture along part of its length, with lower magnitude, and be followed shortly by rupture of the rest. The Alpine Fault is sometimes compared with California’s San Andreas Fault, being another fast-moving strike slip fault near a plate boundary. Overseas rescue and medical assistance will be required. However, a large number of people will suffer disabling injuries. 3.0 magnitude earthquake 2019-12-10 05:15:01 UTC at 05:15 December 10, 2019 UTC Location: Epicenter at 30.983, -103.621 45.2 km from Pecos (28.2 miles) Any actions you take now to be better prepared will make life easier for you and those who rely on you in the aftermath. If you would like to know more, there are a series of short presentations by scientists who have been researching the Alpine Fault and the impacts of the next rupture. Earthquake hits South Island's Alpine Fault; How large? "By comparison, the Kaikōura Earthquake in 2016 ruptured a total fault length of … Alpine has had: (M1.5 or greater) 1 earthquake in the past 24 hours 7 earthquakes in the past 7 days; 29 earthquakes in the past 30 days; 767 earthquakes in the past 365 days This is not a regular pattern, but enough to suggest there is a high probability of a large earthquake … The Alpine Fault stretches for hundreds of miles (kilometres) like a spine along New Zealand's South Island. Presentation given in Christchurch in March 2015. The Alpine Fault last got seriously testy in 1717 or thereabouts and before that, in descending order, 1620, 1430 and 1100. AF8 [Alpine Fault Magnitude 8] is an award-winning programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to build a collective resilience and preparedness to the next Alpine Fault earthquake event. Preparing for an Alpine Fault earthquake. 3. At 3 AM on May 29, 2013, the South Island’s technological uncon­scious roars […] The Alpine Fault connects two "subduction" margins where the ocean floor descends into the Earth's mantle. magnitude that is much smaller than that expected from the Alpine Fault (Mw=8.2) and that is similar to a potential Hope Fault event (Mw7+). The Alpine Fault earthquake will be but one event of many different types of natural hazard events that will occur in New Zealand's future. The Alpine Fault runs right through the heart of New Zealand's glacier county on the country's south island. We provide bus services in Queenstown and Dunedin to help you get to where you need to go. Discover more about the Otago region, the Otago Regional Council and the councillors who represent you. View the latest news and events from Otago Regional Council. The 2020 New Zealand Earthquake (pronounced "TWENTY-TWENTY", also known as the Alpine Fault Quake and the 2020 South Island Quake) is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake that will occur on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island at 11:31 (local) on Thursday, June 18th, 2020. Roads will suffer serious damage, some areas will be become isolated immediately. Read more. Our scientific understanding concerning the next large earthquake on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand. It is the boundary between the Pacific … Damaging aftershocks are likely to continue for several weeks afterwards and the event will have disastrous consequences across many regions. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. You will find the SAFER Plan for this response on the Project AF8 website www.projectaf8.co.nz. Electricity supply is likely to be unavailable for many weeks or even months in some remote areas. Read more. An Alpine Fault earthquake will likely rupture a larger fault length (several hundreds of kilometres rather than several tens of kilometres) over a longer period of time (100s of seconds rather than tens of seconds) and affect a much larger area than the Darfield earthquake. As in any disaster some people may suffer terribly, and others will profit. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. The nature and location of the earthquake relative to major population centres suggest that a relatively small number of people will be killed. An earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to be one of the most significant disasters that could affect Selwyn district. Analysis of sediments deposited by previous Alpine Fault earthquakes shows that the faultline ruptures on a remarkably regular basis, on average at intervals around 300 years. Depending on the time of year, the large number of seasonal visitors in the Queenstown Lakes District and other parts of Otago will be completely reliant on immediate assistance. Encourage others to do likewise. It will be felt throughout the South Island and the lower North Island and as far away as Sydney. Any ski-fields that were operating at the time of the rupture will pose severe rescue difficulties. The effects will be worst in West Otago, diminishing eastward. The 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, which ruptured parts of The Humps, the Hundalee, Hope, Jordan Thurst, Papatea, Kekerengu and Needles faults. It is to be expected that medical services and other civil defence emergency services will be overwhelmed and severely inhibited in their rescue efforts by the scale of damage to roads and buildings. The Alpine Fault is called a strike slip or transform fault. The future of our beautiful region starts with protecting and caring for it today. The 2020 New Zealand Earthquake (pronounced "TWENTY-TWENTY", also known as the Alpine Fault Quake and the 2020 South Island Quake) is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake that will occur on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island at 11:31 (local) on Thursday, June 18th, 2020. Get all the information you need to get around Queenstown. This earthquake will occur with no recognisable warning. In the same way that the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake caused massive landslides to block SH1 for over a year, an Alpine Fault rupture will cut road access through the Kawarau Gorge, Kingston to Frankton, Haast Pass and the Glenorchy Road may be cut in many places, mostly by landslides and dropouts. Evidence is growing the South Island's Alpine Fault, capable of devastating earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above, ruptures more frequently than previously believed. 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